Tools
Climate change scenarios
The latest climate change scenarios for the UK are provided by UKCP09 – the UK Climate Projections. They provide information about expected climate changes in the UK over the 21st century at a 25 km resolution for three different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. As well as changes in average seasonal climate, there is also information on changes in climatic extremes. For the first time ever, UK climate change information is probabilistic in nature. The following UKCP09 resources are available from the Projections website:
- What is UKCP09? describes attributes of UKCP09 and some of the potential benefits it offers, as well as some of the guiding principles that apply to its development and use.
- Key findings provide an overview of the main changes described by UKCP09 for the UK as a whole and for each of the 16 administrative regions in the UK. Projected temperature and precipitation changes for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s are available under the high, medium and low emission scenarios and at 10, 50 and 90% probability levels.
- The Pre-prepared maps & graphs pages contain a series of maps and graphs created using the UKCP09 User Interface. These are useful for visualising the projected changes.
- A suite of published material has also produced to cover the various components of the UKCP09 package of climate information. The Briefing report contains a summary of the 2009 UK Climate Projections (UKCP09), consolidating the scientific reports for the general reader as well as describing the methodology and some key projections of future climate change for the UK over the 21st century.
- The Climate Change Projections report is designed for those who wish to find out more about the purpose and design of the UKCP09 methodology for producing the probabilistic projections of climate change, and is drafted to suit a range of levels of expertise.
- The Weather Generator report introduces the UKCP09 Weather Generator (WG), outlines the needs for and principles of the WG, and describes how it can be used.
- The Marine and Coastal report provides an overview of marine change around the UK, showing key findings and detailing the science used.
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Socio-economic scenarios
Four different socio-economic futures or storylines are provided to illustrate how economic, social and environmental issues might develop in the future. Socio-economic scenarios need to be used alongside climate change scenarios, as socio-economic conditions will have a strong influence on our vulnerability to climate change, and our ability to adapt.
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Decision-making framework
Climate adaptation: Risk, uncertainty and decision-making provides a step-by-step decision-making framework to help planners, businesses and government assess the risk posed by climate change, and work out how best to respond. This Adaptation Wizard is based on the Risk framework presented in that report.
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For specific guidance on framing your problem and setting criteria, see Stages 1 and 2 of the Risk framework.
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For guidance on decision-making with climate change uncertainty see Section 2.3.1 of the report.
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For guidance on risk attitude and thresholds see pgs 70-73 of the report.
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Costing guidelines
These provide a methodology for costing climate change impacts and adaptation, so that the costs of impacts can be compared to the costs of adaptation measures, and the most appropriate measures can be selected. Some case studies on costs of climate change impacts are given in the London scoping study (pdf, 3.5 MB) and the West Midlands scoping study. Simplified (pdf, 2.8 MB) and technical (pdf, 7.2 MB) versions are available.
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Identifying Adaptation Options
This working paper provides an overview of adaptation and is a useful starting point for work on adaptation. It contains examples of building adaptive capacity (BAC) and delivering adaptation actions (DAA), and explains what different categories of adaptation measures are in practice.
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Adaptation Actions
This searchable database of adaptation case studies demonstrates how different organisations in the UK are adapting to climate change and may help to illustrate what various strategies could mean in practice.
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Typology of adaptation strategies can be used to stimulate thinking on the range of possible adaptation strategies.
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UKCIP tools portfolio explains when, and in what context, to use which UKCIP tool.
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Nottingham Declaration Action Plan (NDAP)
The Nottingham Declaration Action Pack (NDAP) is designed to support local authorities address the challenges of climate change through developing, implementing and reviewing climate change action plans. NDAP provides a clear project management framework with links to relevant information and guidance on mitigation and adaptation.
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BACLIAT (UKCIP’s business impacts assessment tool)
UKCIP works with trade associations and professional bodies to help them embed climate impacts and adaptation considerations into their activities. BACLIAT is the output of the first phase of the CCFB project and could help you to think more systematically about how climate change could affect your business.
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Climate Digest
UKCIP compiles a monthly digest of climate change science, impacts and adaptation research from the academic literature.
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Checkist of climate variables
This shows a list of different variables and statistical properties , which can be used to help self-assess climate risks.
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Checklist of risk categories
Is a long list of risks, which can help structure thinking on non-climate risks.
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The BRAIN contains real life examples of the impacts of past weather events. Having a look at some of these examples could broaden your thinking, and point out impacts you hadn’t previously considered.
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Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP)
An LCLIP is a simple resource that organisations can prepare to help them better understand their exposure to weather and climate (pdf, 455 KB). Guidance on how to prepare an LCLIP is available here.
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Preparing for change: Climate-proof your tourism business
If you run a tourism business, the Preparing for change: Climate-proof your tourism business toolkit
will be of interest. Developed by Climate South East, in partnership
with the South West Climate Change Impacts Partnership, Tourism South
East, and South West Tourism, the toolkit helps businesses to assess
how they may be affected by the impacts of flooding, heatwaves and
drought. It suggests practical actions to reduce risk and take
advantage of the opportunities, and provides guidance to further
information and support. Users can complete a checklist and receive a
personalised action plan that allows them to monitor progress in
improving resilience.
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