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Biodiversity

ACCELERATES

MarClim

MONARCH

Conserving biodiversity: building capacity

England biodiversity strategy 

Policies & strategies in Wales

Living Landscapes

Monitoring

Europewide projects

MONARCH: Modelling Natural Resource Responses to Climate change

Conservation agencies in the UK and Ireland commissioned the MONARCH study to provide quantitative evidence of the potential future impact of climate change on wildlife and geophysical features.

The project used a complex computer program to characterise the currently suitable climate space for 50 species associated with 12 habitats. Climate scenarios were then used to estimate likely changes in spatial distribution in the future. 

The study covered the impacts of climate change on a broad range of species (including plants, birds and amphibians) and geological features in terrestrial, freshwater, coastal and marine environments in Britain and Ireland, and considered the implications for nature conservation policy.

• Phase 1 (2001) produced an assessment of the threats and opportunities for habitats and species at the national scale  (Britain and Ireland). Click here for the summary report (pdf, 1.8 MB)

• Phase 2 (2004) focused on four case study areas (Hampshire, Central highlands of Scotland, Snowdonia and a Cuilcagh and Pettigo Blanket bog in Ireland). Click here for the summary report (pdf, 1.9 MB)

• Phase 3 (2007) modelled the potential for changes in the ranges of 120 species selected for nature conservation action in the UK BAP (Biodiversity Action Plan). Click here for the synthesis report (pdf, 5.6 MB)

Key findings

While temperature, rainfall, rates of evaporation and sea level rise are critical factors in understanding the impact of climate change on species, there are other significant factors where data is not yet available. These include changes in the intensity of rainfall events, the numbers of days with snow, maximum wind speed and direction, storminess and any alterations in ocean circulation.

Despite these remaining uncertainties, we can reach some tentative conclusions about the future distribution of species in Britain and Ireland. Climate change appears to present threats for some species, as well as opportunities for others.

In general, species with northerly distributions will lose suitable climate space in Britain and Ireland. The species in this category are amongst the most vulnerable, because these losses are likely to be realised and will lead to fragmented habitats and decreased populations. Balanced against this are species with more southerly distributions that could expand their climate space. For these species the issue is their ability to migrate and the availability of suitable habitat, as vulnerability can occur where there will be little or no overlap between the current and future distribution.

The collective results for species provide an indication of the response of habitats. Montane heaths and to a lesser extent upland hay meadows and pine woodland are seen as being vulnerable to climate change. Upland oak woodland, beech woodland and peat bogs could also be susceptible due to species' losses in southern and eastern England. The species' response in other habitats was much more variable and this may lead to changes in the species' composition of habitats.

• To download the MONARCH reports or order hard copies or CDs, please click here. 

 
Click here for the MONARCH reports