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Headline messages

Please note that the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) have superceded UKCIP02: go to the UKCP09 key findings for more information.

Not all of the changes described by UKCIP02 are given with the same confidence. Based on both expert judgement and consistency with other global climate models, some changes in future UK climate have been assigned a higher confidence than others, ranging from high to low. When using the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios, regardless of the level of detail, it is important to understand the confidence associated with the specific changes described (as indicated in brackets) and to ensure that use of the information is consistent with and fully reflects the associated uncertainties. All future changes are relative to the baseline period of 1961 to 1990.

• Average annual temperature for all regions of the UK has risen by between 0.4 and 0.9ºC since 1914.

• The UK has experienced 8 of the 10 warmest years on record since 1990 (based on the Central England Temperature record).

• The thermal growing season for plants has increased by up to 30 days since 1900.

• By 2040, average annual temperature for the UK is expected to rise by between 0.5 and 1ºC, depending on region. By 2100, average annual temperature for the UK is expected to rise by between 1 and 5ºC, depending on region and emissions scenario (high confidence)

• There is expected to be greater warming in the south and east than in the north and west (high confidence).

• There is expected to be greater warming in the summer and autumn than in the winter and spring (medium confidence).

• The thermal growing season is expected to continue to lengthen (high confidence), but soil moisture levels in the summer and autumn are expected to decrease (high confidence).

• Average summer temperature for all regions of the UK has risen by between 0.5 and 0.9ºC since 1914.

• Total summer precipitation has decreased in most parts of the UK, typically by between 10 and 40% since 1961.

• By 2040, average summer temperature for the UK is expected to rise by between 0.5 and 2ºC, depending on region. By 2100, average summer temperature for the UK is expected to rise by between 1 and 6ºC, depending on region and emissions scenario (high confidence).

• By 2100, there is expected to be up to 50% less precipitation in the summer months, depending on region and emissions scenario (medium confidence).

• The number of days when buildings require cooling is expected to increase (high confidence).

• Average winter temperature for all regions of the UK has risen by up to 0.7ºC since 1914.

• Total winter precipitation has increased in almost all parts of the UK, typically by up to 50% since 1961.

• The number of days with snow cover at 9am has decreased in all regions of the UK by between 4 and 20% since 1961.

• By 2040, average winter temperature for the UK is expected to rise by between 0.5 and 1ºC, depending on region. By 2100, average winter temperature for the UK is expected to rise by between 1 and 4ºC depending on region and emissions scenario (high confidence).

• By 2100, there is expected to be up to 30% more precipitation in the winter months, depending on region and emissions scenario (high confidence).

• Snowfall amounts are expected to decrease across the UK (high confidence), and large parts of the country are expected to experience long runs of winters without snow (medium confidence).

• The number of days when buildings require heating is expected to decrease (high confidence).

• The average duration of summer heatwaves has increased in all regions of the UK by between 4 and 16 days since 1961.

• The average duration of winter cold snaps has decreased in all regions of the UK by between 6 and 12 days since 1961.

• There has been a trend towards heavier winter precipitation for most parts of the UK since 1961.

• The number of very hot summer days is expected to increase, and high temperatures similar to those experienced in August 2003 or July 2006 (>3ºC above average) are expected to become common by the end of this century, even under the Low Emissions scenario (medium confidence).

• The number of very cold winter days is expected to decrease, and low temperatures similar to those experienced in February 1947 or January/February 1963 (>3ºC below average) are expected to become highly uncommon by the end of this century, even under the Low Emissions scenario (medium confidence).

• Heavier winter precipitation is expected to become more frequent (high confidence).

• Winter storms and mild, wet and windy winter weather are expected to become more frequent (low confidence).

• Global average sea level rose by between 10 and 20 cm during the twentieth century.

• Absolute sea level has increased by approximately
  10 cm around the UK coast during the same period, although natural land movements mean there are large regional differences in the actual sea-level rise detected at different coastal locations.

• The temperature of UK coastal waters has increased by between 0.2 and 0.6ºC per decade since 1985.

• Global sea level is expected to continue to rise (high confidence), and by 2100 it could have risen by as much as 80 cm around the UK coast, depending on region and emissions scenario (low confidence).

• There is expected to be greater sea-level rise in the south of England than in western Scotland due to variations in natural land movements (medium confidence).

• Extreme sea levels are expected to be experienced more frequently, and by 2100 storm surge events could occur up to 20 times more frequently for some coastal locations and emissions scenarios (medium confidence).

• The temperature of UK coastal waters is expected to increase, though not as rapidly as air temperatures over land (high confidence).

A pdf of the headline messages is available here (132 KB).

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