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Combining climate & socio-economic scenarios
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Combining climate & socio-economic scenarios
Author: Jacqui Yeates
Last updated: 2006
Dowload a pdf of this article here
The information below has been prepared for the Water Project (Project C) of the Defra funded Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: Cross-regional Research Programme.
Table 1 has been taken from the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios technical report and indicates the relationship and similarities between the underlying assumptions of the UKCIP02 climate scenarios and various socio-economic scenarios. It should be noted that the OST Foresight scenarios have possibly been updated for use in the Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence project since this guidance was prepared. Therefore it is strongly recommended that the Water Project Research Team check if the assumptions behind the OST Foresight Socio-economic scenarios have been updated or changed since the guidance in the UKCIP02 climate scenarios technical report was produced, and assure themselves that the links described in Table 1 are still correct.
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SRES
storyline |
OST Foresight scenario* |
UKCIP Socio- economic
scenarios |
Environment Agency scenario |
UKCIP climate change scenarios |
| B1 |
Global
sustainability
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Global
sustainability
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Gamma
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Low emissions
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| B2 |
Local
stewardship
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Local
stewardship
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Delta
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Medium-low emissions
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| A2 |
Provincial
stewardship
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National
enterprise
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Alpha
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Medium-high emissions
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| A1F1 |
World markets
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World markets
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Beta
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High emissions
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| * Published in early 1999 by the Foresight Programme of the Office of Science & Technology |
Table 1: Links between various socio-economic futures and the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios. Taken from Table A.3, page 107 of UKCIP02 climate scenarios technical report |
Table 2 has been included to help researchers understand the assumptions behind the climate change scenarios and to decide how these best fit with the assumptions made in the socio-economic scenarios. Further details on the SRES scenarios can be found in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, which is available to be downloaded here .
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| Storyline |
Description |
| A1 |
Very rapid economic growth; population peaks mid-century; social, cultural and economic convergence among regions; market mechanisms dominate.
Subdivisions: A1F1 – reliance on fossil fuels; A1T – reliance on non-fossil fuels;
A1B - a balance across all fuel sources
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| A2 |
Self reliance; preservation of local identities; continuously increasing population; economic growth on regional scales
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| B1 |
Clean and efficient technologies; reduction in material use; global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability; improved equity; population peaks mid-century
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| B2 |
Local solutions to sustainability; continuously increasing population at a lower rate than in A2; less rapid technological change than in B1 and A1
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Table 2: A brief description of the SRES
storylines used for calculating future greenhouse gas and other
pollutant emissions. Taken from Table A.2, page 107 of the UKCIP02
climate scenarios technical report |
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It should also be noted that in the future it might be possible to have situations where we are moving in the direction of a particular socio-economic scenario in the UK that does not match the global climate emissions scenario pairing suggested in Table 1. Such an example might be where the UK is moving towards clean technologies and renewable energy, such as described in the B1 climate emissions scenario and Global Sustainability OST Foresight and UKCIP socio-economic scenarios, but globally greenhouse gas emissions are increasing because countries such as China and USA have not cut emissions. Because limiting greenhouse gas emissions is a global issue, this would mean the climate scenario in the situation described might be more like an A2 (Medium-High) or A1F1 (High) emissions scenario. Thus you would have a local Global Sustainability socio-economic scenario paired with a Medium-High or High climate change scenario.
The above comments can also be applied to a Sub-UK or regional setting where the regional development scenario or regional socio-economic scenario might not match what is happening at the national scale.
It is also recommended that you examine ‘worst-case’ pairings of scenarios that might result in situations that are more difficult to adapt to. For instance, in Table 3, a worst-case might be a ‘high’ climate change scenario with a ‘local stewardship’ (lowest GDP) world.
For the above reasons it is advisable to combine a range of climate change and socio-economic scenarios so that a full understanding of the sensitivities of the system can be gained. The table below outlines the scenario combinations UKCIP recommend researchers use. However, we also recommend that when undertaking your analysis (scenarios paired and examined) you ensure you have taken a full account of the range of uncertainties and the specific situation and possible futures, including the impacts of socio-economic “side-swipes” or sudden changes that might currently be unforeseen.
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UKCIP02 scenario
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Socio-economic scenario
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Global
sustainability
(GDP = 2.25%)
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Local
stewardship
(GDP = 1.25%)
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National
enterprise
(GDP = 1.75%)
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World markets
(GDP = 3%)
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| Low |
S C
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S |
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S |
| Medium-low |
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C |
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| Medium-high |
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C |
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| High |
S |
S |
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S C
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Table 3: UKCIP recommended approach towards
combining the UKCIP02 climate scenarios and socio-economic scenarios. Note this table outlines a number of combinations that should be
examined to obtain a full understanding of the uncertainty. ‘S’ may be
combinations used in sensitivity analysis; ‘C’ may be combinations
used if consistency between scenarios is considered.
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