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The UKCIP02 pages provide access to electronic maps and the underlying datasets from the UKCIP02 scenarios, as well as documentation about how they were produced.
Please note that while the UK Climate Projections have superceded
UKCIP02, the information has been kept live for research purposes, and where access to UKCIP02 is necessary for confirming adherence to existing standards and guidance.
The UKCIP02 climate change scenarios were generated from a climate
model developed by the Hadley Centre reflecting the scientists’ best
current understanding of how the climate system operates. Other climate
models may give different results, but this modelling uncertainty is
not formally addressed in UKCIP02. Consequently, it is advised to look
wider than just the UKCIP02 scenarios, particularly when major
investment on long-term infrastructure is being considered.
Not all of the changes described by UKCIP02 are given with the
same confidence. Based on both expert judgement and comparison with
other global climate models, some changes in future UK climate have
been assigned a higher confidence than others. When using the UKCIP02
climate change scenarios, regardless of the level of detail, it is
important to understand the confidence associated with the specific
changes described and to ensure that the use of the information is
consistent with and fully reflects the associated uncertainties.
UKCIP02 specifications
The UKCIP02 climate change scenarios are derived from a series of
climate modelling experiments commissioned and funded by Defra,
undertaken by the Hadley Centre and analysed by the Tyndall Centre.
The UKCIP02 scenarios are based on four different IPCC SRES emissions scenarios:
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Low Emissions
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Medium-Low Emissions
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Medium-High Emissions
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High Emissions
For each scenario, the predicted change in future climate for the United Kingdom is calculated for three future time-slices:
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2011 to 2040 (called the 2020s)
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2041 to 2070 (called the 2050s)
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2071 to 2100 (called the 2080s)
Within each time-slice, changes are presented for several time-scales:
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Changes in annual averages
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Changes in seasonal averages
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Changes in monthly averages
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Changes in the frequency of some extreme events
Changes to the UK climate are reported across a grid with 50 km cell
size. At this scale, changes in climatic variables are presented either
as differences or percentage changes relative to the modelled present
day baseline climate (1961 to 1990). Some climate variables are further
downscaled to a grid with 5 km cell size using simple interpolation. At
this scale, absolute values of projected future UK climate are reported.
The climatic variables available include:
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Maximum/mean/minimum temperature (ºC)
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Total precipitation rate (mm/month)
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Snowfall rate (mm/day)
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Wind speed at 10m (m/s)
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Fractional cloud cover
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Specific humidity (g/kg)
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Relative humidity (%)
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Soil moisture content (mm)
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Net surface shortwave/longwave flux (W/m²)
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Total downward surface shortwave flux (W/m²)
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Surface latent heat flux (W/m²)
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Mean sea level pressure (hpa)
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Mean sea surface temperature (°C)
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Selected derived variables
The UKCIP02 scenarios are designed to be used in conjunction with other UKCIP tools.
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