Key findings

The key findings shown are aggregated values showing change relative to the 1961–1990 baseline for each of the UKCP09 administrative regions, under the Medium emissions scenario for the 2080s, and for 3 probability levels. The wider range is also displayed to show the spread of possible outcomes.

The wider range is defined as the range from the lowest to highest value of change for all three emissions scenarios and all three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

Temperature
Change in winter mean temperature (ºC)
2080s, Medium emissions scenario
Region Probability level
10% 50% 90% Wider range
Channel Islands 1.6 2.8 4.2 1.3 5.0
East Midlands 1.6 3.0 4.6 1.4 5.6
East of England 1.6 3.0 4.7 1.4 5.7
Isle of Man 1.3 2.3 3.6 1.2 4.3
London 1.6 3.0 4.7 1.4 5.7
North East England 1.4 2.6 4.1 1.3 4.9
North West England 1.4 2.6 4.0 1.3 4.8
Northern Ireland 1.3 2.3 3.6 1.1 4.4
Scotland East 1.0 2.2 3.7 1.0 4.2
Scotland North 0.9 2.2 3.6 0.9 4.1
Scotland West 1.4 2.6 4.0 1.3 4.8
South East England 1.6 3.0 4.7 1.4 5.7
South West England 1.6 2.8 4.3 1.4 5.1
Wales 1.6 2.8 4.2 1.4 5.0
West Midlands 1.6 2.9 4.4 1.4 5.2
Yorkshire & Humber 1.6 3.0 4.6 1.4 5.5
Change in summer mean temperature (ºC)
2080s, Medium emissions scenario
Region Probability level
10% 50% 90% Wider range
Channel Islands 1.9 3.6 5.9 1.2 7.3
East Midlands 1.8 3.5 5.8 1.2 7.3
East of England 1.9 3.6 5.9 1.3 7.5
Isle of Man 1.8 3.3 5.2 1.2 6.5
London 2.0 3.9 6.4 1.4 8.1
North East England 2.0 3.7 5.8 1.3 7.3
North West England 2.0 3.7 5.9 1.3 7.3
Northern Ireland 1.7 3.2 5.0 1.1 6.2
Scotland East 1.8 3.5 5.7 1.2 7.0
Scotland North 1.5 3.0 4.9 1.0 6.0
Scotland West 1.8 3.5 5.4 1.2 6.8
South East England 2.0 3.9 6.5 1.4 8.1
South West England 2.1 3.9 6.4 1.3 7.9
Wales 1.9 3.5 5.8 1.2 7.1
West Midlands 2.0 3.7 6.1 1.3 7.5
Yorkshire & Humber 1.7 3.3 5.4 1.2 6.8
Precipitation (water falling in any form, including rain, snow,
sleet or hail)
Change in winter mean precipitation (%)
2080s, Medium emissions scenario
Region Probability level
10% 50% 90% Wider range
Channel Islands +3 +21 +48 +3 +62
East Midlands +3 +19 +41 +3 +54
East of England +4 +20 +44 +4 +57
Isle of Man +5 +22 +49 +5 +67
London +3 +19 +44 +3 +58
North East England +2 +14 +32 +1 +41
North West England +3 +16 +34 +3 +50
Northern Ireland +2 +11 +24 +2 +34
Scotland East +1 +12 +25 +1 +36
Scotland North +4 +17 +35 +4 +45
Scotland West +6 +21 +42 +6 +55
South East England +4 +22 +51 +4 +67
South West England +6 +23 +54 +5 +73
Wales +4 +19 +42 +4 +57
West Midlands +3 +17 +38 +3 +50
Yorkshire & Humber +2 +15 +33 +2 +42
Change in summer mean precipitation (%)
2080s, Medium emissions scenario
Region Probability level
10% 50% 90% Wider range
Channel Islands –56 –28 +8 –65 +16
East Midlands –44 –20 +6 –52 +11
East of England –45 –21 +6 –53 +11
Isle of Man –39 –20 +1 –46 +4
London –48 –23 +7 –56 +13
North East England –36 –18 +1 –43 +3
North West England –43 –22 0 –51 +3
Northern Ireland –33 –15 +3 –39 +6
Scotland East –33 –17 +1 –40 +3
Scotland North –29 –12 +4 –36 +5
Scotland West –33 –16 +1 –39 +3
South East England –48 –23 +7 –56 +13
South West England –50 –24 +6 –58 +13
Wales –43 –20 +5 –51 +11
West Midlands –44 –20 +6 –52 +11
Yorkshire & Humber –44 –23 0 –52 +14