Why prepare for something that might not happen?

We know that the climate is changing and we know the direction of change. But there are still some uncertainties relating to the rate and extent of these changes. More importantly, a business can never know precisely how these changes will translate into consequences, and how various adaptation measures will perform.

A risk based approach allows you to make changes when it is most likely to be worthwhile. Risk is the combination of the likelihood of occurrence and the magnitude of the consequence.

Preparing for catastrophic events can be costly, which can be viewed as money wasted if the worst doesn’t happen. Therefore, building resilience to high likelihood, low magnitude risks may be a preferred strategy for SMEs.

Another way of making sure a business benefits regardless of uncertainties is to look for win-win situations, for example, focussing on weather impacts that have already been experienced. More examples of win-win situations can be found under Business impacts of a changing climate.