Dealing with uncertainty

Not accepting the need to adapt to projected changes in climate, along with difficulties in taking decisions to adapt are often attributed to the lack of certainty in projected climate futures. This should not be used as an excuse for inaction. Many decisions in business and politics are made in the face of uncertainty (e.g. investment decisions) – adaptation should be approached in a similar manner. This usually involves a risk management approach (e.g. the UKCIP Risk, Uncertainty and Decision-making Framework) that takes into account the degree of risk as well as the consequences of a specific decision. This includes a willingness to accept the implications of a wrong decision, known as aversion to risk.

Risks, including financial or public image-related risks, should be taken into account when identifying and selection adaptation options. For example, is the adaptation necessary or potentially too much (over adaptation), less than ideal or not enough (under adaptation), restrictive or simply wrong or unjustified?

An effective way of addressing uncertainty when making decisions, is to adopt a flexible or adaptive management approach by implementing adaptation measure(s) in a phased manner. This involves doing what is needed to address existing risks, and delaying decisions where the risks are less certain but currently tolerable. A clear understanding of the risks (both current and future) and the scope and potential of identified adaptation measures is essential (see UKCIP Risk, Uncertainty and Decision-making Framework). The flexible/adaptive management approach recognises that understanding the risks and efficacy of a particular adaptation measure will change with time.

Addressing the risks associated with today’s climate variability and extremes as a starting point for assessing longer-term climate change risks, is an example of adaptive management. Understanding the impacts of present-day weather and climate, provides both evidence of vulnerabilities and addressing them through adaptation can provide a guide to appropriate (successful) adaptation responses. Reducing risks associated with existing vulnerabilities, especially those that are projected to increase with future climate change, can have multiple and immediate benefits to the bottom line. These benefits can be direct and quickly realised through savings as a result of reduced risks and/or increased efficiency. Indirect benefits by demonstrating social responsibility are also likely, with follow-on implications for confidence of shareholders or constituency.